Single or AKO? That is a question …
2008-03-06 10:37:49
Is it better to bet on the single events, or to fill in the whole betting slip and to enjoy the high AKO (Accumulative Odd)? – this question keeps many beginning players awake at night. From strictly mathematical point of view the answer is trivial.
Let`s assume, that we would like to make a bet for two volleyball matches. First of them will be a match between teams I and II. To make it more simple we will assume, that both teams have equal chances to win , that is 50%. If a bookmaker would be a non-profit agency(not aiming for the highest profit), then the odds for the victory for both teams would be the same, that is 2.0 (1/2.0=0,5 so 50 percent). However every bookie always wants to make the highest profit and sets the odds on the lower level, let`s say 1,85.
1/1.85 + 1/1.85 = 1,081
The bookmaker`s margin, so his profit, in our case is 0.081, that is 8.1 percent. This how much the bookmaker is earning in case of a single bet.
The second volleyball match will be between the teams III and IV. Both of the team have equal chances of winning and the bookmaker have determined his margin on the same level as in the game between the teams I and II.
Now we are assuming, that we would like to bet on two games at one betting slip. So we`ve got four possible combinations:
1. team I wins, team II wins
2. team I wins, team IV wins
3. team II wins, team III wins
4. team II wins, team IV wins
Because we have assumed, that each of the teams have the same chances for winning, the probability for lucky hit equals 25 percent. If the bookmaker wouldn`t like to earn some money, then he would have determined the odd as 4.0 (1/4.0 = 0.25, that is 25%). For every €100 in the stake we would have won €400.
Unfortunately bookie isn`t so kind when it comes to money and he is always imposing his margin. The AKO for the double bet is 3.4225. Like you can see it`s much lover, than it would come from the fair calculations excluding the bookmaker`s margin. From €100 that we have staked, we earn only €342.25.
AKO = 1.85 x 1.85 = 3.4225
AKO percentage presentation:
1/AKO = 1/3.4225 = 0,2921 = 29,21 percent.
Because the probability for every triumphant combination to appear is the same, we have to multiply the AKO by 4.
4 x 29,21 = 116,84 percent
This 16.84 percent is the bookmakers profit in case, when both games we would like to bet on one betting slip. Let`s remind you, that if we would like to bet every game on a different single betting slip, then the bookmaker`s margin would be in out case only 8.1 percent.
Like you can see the bookmakers are keen on the gamblers, who are betting on the AKO. Then they are earning more and at the same time we are losing more. However it`s only mathematic.
